D4.2 Proposals for integrated strategic assessment methods and models
Current freight transport modelling approaches might be able to represent pathways of low carbon technologies adoption according to Paris goals.However, they are not able to represent the impact of structural system change in achieving decarbonization goals. This report first provides a literature review on freight transport models and strategic assessment models and tools. Then, we review and discuss the application of agent-based models (ABMs)in the future assessment models. Next, we review and discuss two of the most important digital technologydisruptions and trends in future decarbonization: synchromodality and supply chain synchronization and the impact of blockchain technology on decarbonization in logistics and supply chain.The discussion and conclusions provide general comments on model development for strategic assessments and the current generation of integrated strategic assessment models currently used for EU level transport policy analysis. We make proposals for requirements that future model development could address and have a few suggestions for new modelling directions. Requirements for future logistics and freight transport models include life cycle analysis, improved consideration of total cost of ownership, further development of agent-based models(ABMs), modelling the impact of digitalisation,and improvement in data structures and data standardisation. New types of models could include models of information flows as well as physical goods flows, ‘Big models’ for ‘Big Data’ or aggregate-disaggregate-aggregate(ADA)models and rapid response models for stakeholder processes.Finally, we identify policy areas,especially around digitalisation, that may require new types of assessment. The policy areas include data sharing and data standards,low carbon infrastructure with combined energy sources / hybrid vehicles,scenarios of low conventional demand growth and scenarios of more complex urban distribution structures.